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0|0|0|||1||Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||01:04:35|04/05/2016|[updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-05-16 AT 01:05 AM (EDT)]Over in one of the TIA4 threads%2C someone said%3A%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EHahaha%2C somebody kept an eye on the Model 3 product launch this %0D%0A%3Eweekend%2C didn%27t they.%0D%0A%0D%0ATotal coincidence%3B this story has been in the works for a long time and went back on the active list last week%2C mostly at Matt%27s urging.%0D%0A%0D%0AI%27m honestly not very impressed by Tesla Motors.  All-battery electric cars are a dead end.  Not only do they not have the range to be useful to people who live outside of cities%E2%80%94and contrary to the limited understanding of the urban hipsters to whom Tesla does most of its marketing%2C there are still a few of us%E2%80%94I doubt the general market even %5Bi%5Din%5B%2Fi%5D cities is ever going to stand for an automobile that takes six or more hours to refuel%2C after a hundred years plus of cars that take five minutes.  The first time most of those people need to go more than 200 miles in a day and discover that they can%27t do it%2C the bloom will rather fade off that rose%2C I suspect.%0D%0A%0D%0AI%27m not down on alternative power sources for personal transport%2C I just think they%27ve picked the wrong one.  If Musk had sunk all that effort and energy into advancing and promoting the fueling infrastructure necessary to make fuel cell cars commercially viable instead of chasing the all-battery rabbit%2C he%27d have accomplished something worthwhile.  As it is%2C I can%27t help but suspect that outside the urban centers%2C he%27s basically just cashing in on people with newly developed senses of ecoconsciousness%2C but no real understanding of what is and isn%27t practical in the everyday world%2C and he%27s not going to get a lot of repeat customers among that second group.%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
1|1|0|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|BZArcher||09:44:47|04/05/2016|I disagree a bit - I think the ways they%27re improving both retention and charging technology %28the latest rev SuperCharger can now recharge a Model S from flat to 100%25 in about 45 minutes%2C I believe%29 will be important and relevant - and I suspect we%27ll continue to see improvements.%0D%0A%0D%0AFuel cell is a great solution%2C too%2C but nobody except Honda seems to be touching it%2C and even then it%27s been fairly weak at digging into the markets where they%27ve rolled it out. At least electric %2F hybrid tech is getting greater acceptance at this point%2C and more companies are getting involved to push the envelope.
18|2|1|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|rwpikul||15:24:10|04/06/2016|%3EI disagree a bit - I think the ways they%27re improving both retention %0D%0A%0D%0ARange will always be an issue for people who have long trips on secondary routes.  OTOH%2C I have seen very few people who push a %27nothing but EVs%27 line.  Electric-driven hybrids%2C %28like the Volt%29%2C will have a strong niche for a long time.%0D%0A%0D%0A%3Eand charging technology %28the latest rev SuperCharger can now recharge %0D%0A%3Ea Model S from flat to 100%25 in about 45 minutes%2C I believe%29 will be %0D%0A%3Eimportant and relevant - and I suspect we%27ll continue to see %0D%0A%3Eimprovements. %0D%0A%0D%0AAlso%2C the core of the charging time %27problem%27 is looking at the issue the way we currently %27recharge%27 our cars%3A  Running them until they are almost empty and then going somewhere to quickly refill them.  This is actually a strange way to handle the issue%2C can you imaging a smartphone that you had to take back to the store once or twice a week to recharge%3F%0D%0A%0D%0AFor most people%2C the effective recharging time for an EV is 0.  Why%3F  Because they aren%27t doing the recharging when they are running low%2C they do it every time they get home%2C %28and%2C ideally%2C when at work%29.  Who cares if it takes 4-6 hours to get back up to a full charge if it%27s happening while you are spending 8 hours working%2C or 4 hours making%2Feating dinner%2C watching TV%2C playing games%2C etc. followed by 7 hours of sleep%3F%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EFuel cell is a great solution%2C too%2C%0D%0A%0D%0ANot really%3A  It means either using a hydrocarbon fuel cell%2C which are tricky to design so that they don%27t turn themselves into hopelessly gunked-up scrap and still have the whole carbon emissions problem%2C or hydrogen%2C which _sucks_ as a fuel.%0D%0A%0D%0AWell%2C it%27s not so much that it%27s hard to use hydrogen.  That part%27s easy%2C it%27s handling and storing the stuff that%27s a dangerous PITA.  When you combine something that burns with an invisible flame%2C can detonate when mixed with air%2C will leak right through just about any tank material and has a lousy energy density%2C %28thus requiring either cryogenic or high-pressure storage%29%2C you get something that I seriously don%27t want random people handling at gas stations.
2|1|0|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||10:21:58|04/05/2016|Seems worth noting that the problems Musk is attempting to address with the Tesla are as much logistical%2C cultural%2C and political as they are engineering.%0D%0A%0D%0AAll-battery electric cars are only a dead end if you approach them from a standpoint of %22replicate existing car culture and usage patterns as much as possible%22 as opposed to from a standpoint of %22stepping stone to fundamentally change the same.%22%0D%0A%0D%0ANow%2C that may not work%2C in which case Tesla will have ended up with beautifully engineered cars that occupy a dead-end niche market that either will or ought to be eventually be imploded by improved mass transit anyway.%0D%0A%0D%0AMy gut opinion is that our eventual transition away from hydrocarbons in the realm of personal transportation is going to be driven not by whatever solution is %22best%22 from a technical standpoint%2C but by whichever option is best %5Bi%5Dpositioned%5B%2Fi%5D both in the marketplace and in the political sphere when hydrocarbons either become unaffordably priced or massively restricted. Musk might end up winning that game.%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
3|2|2|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||14:35:52|04/05/2016|%3ENow%2C that may not work%2C in which case Tesla will have ended up with %0D%0A%3Ebeautifully engineered cars that occupy a dead-end niche market that %0D%0A%3Eeither will or ought to be eventually be imploded by improved mass %0D%0A%3Etransit anyway. %0D%0A%0D%0A%22Improved mass transit%22 is kind of an entertaining phrase to me%2C given that mass transit is an inherently dreadful experience.  It%27s like talking about %22improved gastroenteritis%22.  Which one might have a chance to be exposed to on public transportation%21  So it all ties together. %3A%29%0D%0A%0D%0A%22Don%27t want to be on time or anywhere near where you actually need to be%3F  The train station%27s your next left.%22%0D%0A - James May%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
4|3|3|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||15:22:24|04/05/2016|[updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-05-16 AT 03:26 PM (EDT)]%3E%22Improved mass transit%22 is kind of an entertaining phrase to me%2C given %0D%0A%3Ethat mass transit is an inherently dreadful experience.  %0D%0A%0D%0ACompared to %5Bi%5Ddriving%5B%2Fi%5D in any major city%2C tho%3F%0D%0A%0D%0AMass transit doesn%27t have to be inherently dreadful%2C it%27s just badly implemented a lot%2C especially in North America. The London Underground is excellent. So are the systems in most Japanese cities%2C although I%27ve not been personally. NYC isn%27t as good as it should be %28and it%27s primed to get worse since they killed plans for a second tunnel under the Hudson and have been dreadfully underinvesting in the LIRR%29 but it is pretty damn good%2C and even Toronto manages to be pretty okay.%0D%0A%0D%0AAnd realistically%2C we%27ve tried to make cities car-friendly and it hasn%27t worked out well%2C because it turns out that density and cars do not mix. The Robert Moses methodology of punching enormous freeways through the hearts of urban areas and mandating that every building have a legally mandated minimum level of parking spaces has been a colossal failure on almost every level%2C as has been designing sprawling urban polities that simply smear the mess over a wider area. %28I%27m looking at you%2C Los Angeles and Houston.%29 My own city is actually dismantling a large part of the freeway running through its heart because it turns out that the damn thing is a major impediment to actually living and working downtown%2C which is sort of what a city is %5Bi%5Dfor.%5B%2Fi%5D%0D%0A%0D%0AThis isn%27t to entirely denigrate Moses as a planner and builder. His bridge-building%2C crooked politics aside%2C was utterly necessary for NYC to survive and thrive. But thank god they killed the Mid-Manhattan Expressway%2C as well as his numerous other plans to pave over Manhattan. %0D%0A%0D%0A... this went off on a tangent. I%27m an enormous fan of cities as social%2C political%2C and architectural constructs and will talk about them for hours if you let me. Ask about the history of viaducts%21 %5Bi%5DI dare you.%5B%2Fi%5D%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
5|4|4|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||15:28:16|04/05/2016|%3E%0D%0A%3E%3E%22Improved mass transit%22 is kind of an entertaining phrase to me%2C given %0D%0A%3E%3Ethat mass transit is an inherently dreadful experience.  %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3ECompared to %5Bi%5Ddriving%5B%2Fi%5D in any major city%2C tho%3F %0D%0A%0D%0AWell%2C y%27know%2C don%27t go by me%2C but I%27ve never caught the stomach flu or been felt up by a stranger in a traffic jam.%0D%0A%0D%0AFair enough%2C though.  I will acknowledge that I hate public transit in large part because I hate the public. %3A%29%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
6|5|5|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||15:48:02|04/05/2016|%0D%0A%3EFair enough%2C though.  I will acknowledge that I hate public transit in %0D%0A%3Elarge part because I hate the public. %3A%29 %0D%0A%0D%0AThat%27s not true. You love people. Just%2C you know... maybe with some really thick glass between you and them. %3A%29 %0D%0A%0D%0A%28Thought about writing a thousand words here about the surprising amount of overlap between people who are enormous fans of the human spirit and people who look at a crowd of actual humans and go %22fuck this noise.%22 Thought about it. Decided against it.%29%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
7|6|6|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||15:52:31|04/05/2016|%3E%0D%0A%3E%3EFair enough%2C though.  I will acknowledge that I hate public transit in %0D%0A%3E%3Elarge part because I hate the public. %3A%29 %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3EThat%27s not true. You love people. Just%2C you know... maybe with some %0D%0A%3Ereally thick glass between you and them. %3A%29 %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3E%28Thought about writing a thousand words here about the surprising %0D%0A%3Eamount of overlap between people who are enormous fans of the human %0D%0A%3Espirit and people who look at a crowd of actual humans and go %22fuck %0D%0A%3Ethis noise.%22 Thought about it. Decided against it.%29 %0D%0A%0D%0A%22I%27m sure we all agree that we ought to love one another%3B and I know there %5Bi%5Dare%5B%2Fi%5D people in the world who do not love their fellow human beings%2C and %5Bi%5DI %5Bb%5Dhate%5B%2Fb%5D people like that%21%5B%2Fi%5D%22%0D%0A - Tom Lehrer%2C %22National Brotherhood Week%22 %281965%29%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
12|6|6|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Peter Eng||21:50:53|04/05/2016|%3E%0D%0A%3E%28Thought about writing a thousand words here about the surprising %0D%0A%3Eamount of overlap between people who are enormous fans of the human %0D%0A%3Espirit and people who look at a crowd of actual humans and go %22fuck %0D%0A%3Ethis noise.%22 Thought about it. Decided against it.%29 %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%0D%0AIn less than a thousand words%2C speaking only for myself%3A %0D%0A%0D%0AWhen I spend so much time imagining humans at their highest potential%2C I find that dealing with humanity as it is becomes somewhat less enjoyable.%0D%0A%0D%0APeter Eng%0D%0A--%0D%0AInsert humorous comment here.
13|7|12|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||21:53:14|04/05/2016|%3E%3E%0D%0A%3E%3E%28Thought about writing a thousand words here about the surprising %0D%0A%3E%3Eamount of overlap between people who are enormous fans of the human %0D%0A%3E%3Espirit and people who look at a crowd of actual humans and go %22fuck %0D%0A%3E%3Ethis noise.%22 Thought about it. Decided against it.%29 %0D%0A%3E%3E%0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3EIn less than a thousand words%2C speaking only for myself%3A %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3EWhen I spend so much time imagining humans at their highest potential%2C %0D%0A%3EI find that dealing with humanity as it is becomes somewhat less %0D%0A%3Eenjoyable. %0D%0A%0D%0AOr%2C in still fewer words%2C%0D%0A%0D%0A%22This is why we can%27t have nice things.%22%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
19|8|13|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|MoonEyes||06:37:24|04/12/2016|%0D%0A%3E%22This is why we can%27t have nice things.%22 %0D%0A%0D%0A%22A person is smart. People are dumb%2C panicky dangerous animals.%22 As it were.%0D%0A%0D%0AStill%2C from that%2C to the subject of electrical vehicles%2C noting in particular that I don%27t have either a car%28at the moment%29 or a license...while they might be a dead end%2C I can%27t see how I see they ARE%2C at the moment.%0D%0AMight turn out to be%2C yes. Are%2C not so much.%0D%0AAnd if no-one makes even the attempt to try making them into something useful%2C then it won%27t turn out well. Making them into something useful seems to be what Tesla does...that is to say%2C making a CAR%2C and not a plasticy novelty item in bright colors%2C not for children under three%2C some assembly required%2C etc.%0D%0A%0D%0ALong and sorta rambly%2C but...%0D%0A%0D%0A...%21%0D%0AGott%27s Leetle Feesh in Trousers%21
20|9|19|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|rwpikul||19:39:25|04/12/2016|%3E%0D%0A%3E%3E%22This is why we can%27t have nice things.%22 %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3E%22A person is smart. People are dumb%2C panicky dangerous animals.%22 As it %0D%0A%3Ewere. %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3EStill%2C from that%2C to the subject of electrical vehicles%2C noting in %0D%0A%3Eparticular that I don%27t have either a car%28at the moment%29 or a %0D%0A%3Elicense...while they might be a dead end%2C I can%27t see how I see they %0D%0A%3EARE%2C at the moment. %0D%0A%0D%0AIt%27s the old bit of%3A  They currently can%27t 100%25 replace everything we currently do with the old technology while operating under the standing paradigm%2C therefore they will end up as a failure.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe reasoning is wrong on two points%3A%0D%0A%0D%0AYou don%27t drive EVs until they are almost out of charge and then stop to recharge them.  %28You recharge them when they would be parked anyway.%29%0D%0A%0D%0AIt assumes that pure EVs are intended for long distance driving off of main routes.  %28That%27s a niche which will likely be handed off to things like electric-driven hybrids.%29
21|10|20|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||19:42:59|04/12/2016|%3EYou don%27t drive EVs until they are almost out of charge and then stop %0D%0A%3Eto recharge them.  %28You recharge them when they would be parked %0D%0A%3Eanyway.%29 %0D%0A%0D%0AYou do if you live where I live%2C assuming you actually want to get anywhere.  Which brings us to point 2%3A%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EIt assumes that pure EVs are intended for long distance driving off of %0D%0A%3Emain routes.  %28That%27s a niche which will likely be handed off to %0D%0A%3Ethings like electric-driven hybrids.%29 %0D%0A%0D%0A... So in the future I%27ll be expected to have two cars%2C because one can%27t go anywhere except to the store and the other is Ethically Unacceptable for doing so%3F  Uh.  Who decides which trip is suitable for which vehicle%3F%0D%0A%0D%0AIt%27s just... like virtually everything else that%27s considered %22modern%22 these days%2C the whole concept is optimized for city living to the point where it%27s worse than useless to those of us who don%27t.  One gets tired of that drumbeat after a while.  A very %5Bi%5Dshort%5B%2Fi%5D while.%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
22|11|21|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Pasha||19:52:47|04/12/2016|%0D%0A%3E... So in the future I%27ll be expected to have two cars%2C because one %0D%0A%3Ecan%27t go anywhere except to the store and the other is Ethically %0D%0A%3EUnacceptable for doing so%3F  Uh.  Who decides which trip is suitable %0D%0A%3Efor which vehicle%3F %0D%0A%0D%0ANo%2C you%27ll have a different car than I will.  Nobody is saying that the Tesla is the best car for everything%2C but for my %28and many others%29 use case%2C %28Move me and a backpack 30 miles in relative comfort%2C stop for 10 hours%2C repeat%29 it%27s pretty much ideal.  But for my next door neighbor it%27s a horrible car because he needs to shift a bunch of cargo around.%0D%0A%0D%0AThen again%2C my current%2C gas powered%2C car is useless for his use case as well%2C and I wouldn%27t dream of telling him that he%27s Ethically Unacceptable for not using one.%0D%0A%0D%0A-- %0D%0A-Pasha %0D%0A%22Don%27t change the subject%22%0D%0A%22Too slow%2C already did.%22
23|12|22|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||19:55:04|04/12/2016|%3ENobody is saying that %0D%0A%3Ethe Tesla is the best car for everything%0D%0A%0D%0AOn a point of order%2C %5Bi%5Dloads%5B%2Fi%5D of people are saying that%2C that%27s why I%27m so annoyed by the general outcome of the whole %22culturehacking%22 angle of their marketing approach.  Just not necessarily in this thread. %3A%29%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
24|12|22|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||23:49:37|04/12/2016|[updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-12-16 AT 11:50 PM (EDT)]%3EThen again%2C my current%2C gas powered%2C car is useless for his use case %0D%0A%3Eas well%2C and I wouldn%27t dream of telling him that he%27s Ethically %0D%0A%3EUnacceptable for not using one. %0D%0A%0D%0AHe%2C %5Bi%5Dpersonally%5B%2Fi%5D%2C is not%2C but it may in fact not be ethically acceptable to structure a society around the relentless burning of hydrocarbons%2C which is sort of why things like Tesla Motors exist in the first place.%0D%0A%0D%0AIt%27s sort of like needing to move house in order to get your kids into a better school. It%27s ethically acceptable to do that%3B indeed%2C it may even be an ethical obligation. It may not%2C however%2C be ethically acceptable to structure a society that encourages all the people with money and spare time to clump up in one area with lavish schools while leaving the folks who have neither time nor money in another place with deeply shitty schools.%0D%0A%0D%0ARe%3A Ben%27s point on modern developments %28it seems more sensible to thread it here than one post up in this instance%29%3A%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EIt%27s just... like virtually everything else that%27s considered %22modern%22 these%0D%0A%3Edays%2C the whole concept is optimized for city living to the point where it%27s%0D%0A%3Eworse than useless to those of us who don%27t. One gets tired of that drumbeat%0D%0A%3Eafter a while. A very short while.%0D%0A%0D%0ATo be fair%2C for decades nearly everything that was considered %22modern%22 was relentlessly optimized for %5Bi%5Dsuburban%5B%2Fi%5D living. If you didn%27t feel like living in a detached single-family structure surrounded by loads of appliances with two cars in the garage%2C a lot of the wonders of the jet age were sort of %22Okay. Sure.%22 So%2C you know. Turnabout.%0D%0A%0D%0AReally%2C this speaks to a deeper issue. For decades public policymaking was %28still is%2C really%29 heavily focused on subsidizing%2C either directly or indirectly%2C both car culture and suburban living. Predictably%2C many of our consumer goods oriented this way as well. It doesn%27t hurt that that lifestyle is legitimately attractive to loads of people%2C of course. It sure as hell is to me%3B I love being able to hop in a car and get to a variety of wonderful places in comfort and privacy in under twenty minutes. It%27s quarter to midnight right now%2C but if I wanted to make a nacho run %5Bi%5DI could do it.%5B%2Fi%5D%0D%0A%0D%0ABut for the past fifteen years or so%2C a wave of %22No%2C this isn%27t sustainable%2C we%27re headed for an awful crash at some point%22 has been building among people who take this sort of thing seriously. Nobody is proposing Soviet-style mass relocations%2C but there%27s a lot of focus on shifting the things we subsidize from suburban or rural living to city living%2C and then trusting that people will react accordingly%2C the same way they did when the suburbs were %28are%29 emphasized. A lot of bright-eyed futurists who want to save the world %28which is a laudable goal%21 that%27s what technology is %5Bi%5Dfor%5B%2Fi%5D%21%29 are trying to get ahead of the curve%2C relentlessly pushing modern technology and conveniences that are optimized for a much more dense mode of living.%0D%0A%0D%0ABasically we live in an era of massive transition in how we live and work%2C in the same way our grandparents did after WWII but with a lot less certainty. It can be exciting but also very uncomfortable.%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
25|11|21|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|MuninsFire||01:15:35|04/13/2016|%0D%0A%3E... So in the future I%27ll be expected to have two cars%2C because one %0D%0A%3Ecan%27t go anywhere except to the store and the other is Ethically %0D%0A%3EUnacceptable for doing so%3F  Uh.  Who decides which trip is suitable %0D%0A%3Efor which vehicle%3F %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3EIt%27s just... like virtually everything else that%27s considered %22modern%22 %0D%0A%3Ethese days%2C the whole concept is optimized for city living to the %0D%0A%3Epoint where it%27s worse than useless to those of us who don%27t.  One %0D%0A%3Egets tired of that drumbeat after a while.  A very %5Bi%5Dshort%5B%2Fi%5D while. %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%0D%0ASo%2C I%27ve been keeping an eye on this sort of thing for a while now%2C and there%27s some interesting confluences happening around the car industry.%0D%0A%0D%0APlease bear in mind that my perspective on this is primarily concerned with information security%2C so if it sounds somewhat paranoid....well%2C there%27s reasons.%0D%0A%0D%0A%28tl%3Bdr if you want to skip the rationale%3A various pressures will denormalize auto ownership amongst city folk%3B will be more expensive for country folk%3B freedom of movement is going to drastically shrink%29%0D%0A%0D%0AThere%27s several different car manufacturers %28and some tech manufacturers%29 who are making noises about autonomous vehicles%2C some of which are intended to be electrically powered. There have been demonstrations of several classes of such vehicles%2C including %28recently%29 autonomously-controlled semitrucks.%0D%0A%0D%0AThere%27s also some tech firms that are more interested in selling car-rides-as-a-service rather than cars%2C per se. Uber and Lyft%2C for instance. They fit in the previous category as well - they%27re involved in developing autonomous vehicle capabilities%2C as they are interested in reducing the cost of driver payments.%0D%0A%0D%0AThere%27s also quite a few folks in the insurance industry who are beginning to see that autonomous vehicles are safer than the typical driver.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe tech firms and insurance firms are extremely interested in collecting data around the kinds of rides taken in various vehicles - Uber%2C for instance%2C is particularly notorious for the collection and use of such information.%0D%0A%0D%0AThere are already car rental firms that are including mandatory telemetry reporting in their rental cars. There are also several insurance firms that offer %22reduced%22 rates if you install a telemetry recorder in your car that reports to them.%0D%0A%0D%0AThere are also governmental factors at work here - not just lobbying by the auto%2C tech%2C and insurance industries%2C but the increasing pressure on states to fund their transportation budgets. The increases in gasoline efficiency %28as demanded by EPA guidelines%29 and the increase in electric car usage %28which doesn%27t -use- gas%29 has resulted in a drastic loss in revenues from gasoline taxes%3B these gas taxes are generally earmarked for DOT budgets.%0D%0A%0D%0AFurther%2C there%27s been%2C for the past few years%2C an overall reduction in the number of teenagers getting drivers%27 licenses - the articles that talk about that cite a lack of interest%2C costs that are too high to run a car%2C etc.%0D%0A%0D%0AAdd to this the increase in %22anti-terrorist%22 surveillance%2C which is in the news everywhere.%0D%0A%0D%0AWith all these factors in play%2C there are several potential outcomes%2C but from my particular perspective%2C the most likely one is this%3A%0D%0A%0D%0AAs autonomous vehicles become more normalized and capable%2C insurance companies will offer %27discounts%27 for vehicles with autonomous capabilities %28because they%27re safer%29 but%2C needing to make up the costs to maintain revenues%2C will hike the rates for manual-control vehicles. %0D%0A%0D%0AThese costs will cause older%2C used vehicle insurance costs to skyrocket%2C further impeding the likelihood of drivers%27 license acquisition amongst teenagers.%0D%0A%0D%0ANormalization of %22ride summoning%22 apps %28and the associated ease of being able to order a ride to your location%2C as well as the comparatively cheap costs of maintaining an autonomous vehicle fleet rather than paying drivers%29 results in a further loss of persons with driving capability%2C and increased use of by-ride purchases rather than automobile ownership in cities and in the attached sprawl.%0D%0A%0D%0AThese rides will end up having taxes added to them by length%2C to fund the departments of transportation.%0D%0A%0D%0AThe data concerning who takes what ride where will%2C of course%2C be thoroughly sold by the ride providers %28as the autonomous vehicles will have to report telemetry anyway as a normal part of their usage%29%2C and will be provided to various law enforcement agencies on whatever pretexts they want. %0D%0A%0D%0AAt this point%2C I suspect we may well get various cities implementing Shadowrun-style traffic-control grids to manage autonomous vehicle flow%2C so at least this cyberpunk dystopia will have -some- cool bits.%0D%0A%0D%0ARural persons will presumably have to gain special exemption for vehicles that do not travel under fully autonomous guidance%2C much as exemptions exist today for%2C e.g.%2C children in farming families with tractors and the like.%0D%0A%0D%0A%28Though there%27s already plenty of pushback there%2C given that semi-autonomous tractors are already being pushed as a way to increase farming efficiency.%29%0D%0A%0D%0AWe end up with movement being controlled by a set of autonomous-vehicle-fleet companies who thoroughly monitor and control access to transportation%2C with only a comparatively few rich or eccentric people actually owning vehicles - people buy rides%2C not cars. There are several outcomes that result from -this- but those are out of scope of the %27car%27 theme of discussion.%0D%0A%0D%0ASo in the future%2C you will have -no- cars%2C and will order a small vehicle or a large vehicle depending on whether you have a lot of shopping to do%2C and will pay whatever rate the local infrastructure provider cares to charge.
26|12|25|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||01:29:47|04/13/2016|Without endorsing all of this%2C I feel like you leave out one key thing %5Bi%5Dif%5B%2Fi%5D autonomous vehicles become a reality and become a reality quickly.%0D%0A%0D%0ARight now there are about 3.5 million commercial truck drivers in the US. It is also%2C crucially%2C one of the few remaining well-paying jobs available to people without a college education.%0D%0A%0D%0AWhat are those three and a half million people going to do if they%27re told to go pound sand over the course of about five years%3F What options are available to a forty-year-old trucker with a GED and the beginnings of a bad back%3F%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
27|13|26|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|MuninsFire||01:43:36|04/13/2016|I suspect autonomous vehicles will become reality sooner rather than later - there are a lot of people spending great huge gobs of money to make it happen%2C and the nature of this kind of development is such that it progresses in an S-curve%3A we%27re past the initial slow development and well into the part where it looks like exponential growth.%0D%0A%0D%0AFor example%2C consider the new Tesla - when that vehicle comes out%2C there will have been several years of incremental improvements in Tesla-brand autonomous function from the existing vehicles%2C all of which are rigged to report telemetry back to Tesla and receive updates to their algorithms.%0D%0A%0D%0AAs for the truck drivers - many of them will be relegated to what amounts to %27stockyard%27 jobs%2C shuttling trucks around delivery yards and the like. We%27re probably going to get a lot of very nasty labor actions%2C strikes%2C protests and the like.%0D%0A%0D%0AIt%27s going to get extremely ugly%2C I agree.
28|12|25|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||11:35:36|04/13/2016|Make sure to keep a copy of this%2C you might need it as your term paper for Topics in Dystopian Miseryscapes 403.%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
30|13|28|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|MuninsFire||14:39:44|04/13/2016|Heh%2C yeah%2C you ain%27t kidding.%0D%0A%0D%0ALike I said%2C this comes from my perspective in infosec%2C where the thought process goes %22What%27s the worst that could possibly happen%3F OK%2C now how could someone make it even worse%3F%22%0D%0A%0D%0AAnd that%27s why I like reading your stuff - it has that tinge of optimism%2C of %22We can build a better future%22 that I don%27t find very often these days. Gives me something to aspire to beyond %22keep things from getting even worse.%22
29|11|21|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|rwpikul||14:36:57|04/13/2016|%3E%3EYou don%27t drive EVs until they are almost out of charge and then stop %0D%0A%3E%3Eto recharge them.  %28You recharge them when they would be parked %0D%0A%3E%3Eanyway.%29 %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3EYou do if you live where I live%2C assuming you actually want to get %0D%0A%3Eanywhere.  Which brings us to point 2%3A %0D%0A%0D%0AIf your regular daily usage%2C %28or trip distance if there are chargers at each end%29%2C is longer than the range on batteries then a pure EV isn%27t the right choice.%0D%0A%0D%0A%3E%3EIt assumes that pure EVs are intended for long distance driving off of %0D%0A%3E%3Emain routes.  %28That%27s a niche which will likely be handed off to %0D%0A%3E%3Ethings like electric-driven hybrids.%29 %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3E... So in the future I%27ll be expected to have two cars%2C because one %0D%0A%3Ecan%27t go anywhere except to the store and the other is Ethically %0D%0A%3EUnacceptable for doing so%3F  Uh.  Who decides which trip is suitable %0D%0A%3Efor which vehicle%3F %0D%0A%0D%0ANo%2C if your typical usage is going to require the longer range you have a single car that isn%27t a pure EV.  Such as the mentioned electric-driven hybrid%3A  For short trips%2C these are slightly less efficient%2C %28due to the extra weight%29%2C or somewhat shorted ranged%2C %28if the weight of the generator is made up for by having fewer batteries%29%2C than a pure EV.  For longer trips the generator activates and supplies the electricity to continue driving.%0D%0A%0D%0ANow%2C if the long trip is the atypical one then you would use two different vehicles but you still wouldn%27t own two.  However%2C this is a bit of analysis people should have been doing for years%2C %28cost of a vehicle that does everything you need v%2Fs the cost of one that does most of it and renting for the rest%5B1%5D%29.%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EIt%27s just... like virtually everything else that%27s considered %22modern%22 %0D%0A%3Ethese days%2C the whole concept is optimized for city living to the %0D%0A%3Epoint where it%27s worse than useless to those of us who don%27t.  One %0D%0A%3Egets tired of that drumbeat after a while.  A very %5Bi%5Dshort%5B%2Fi%5D while. %0D%0A%0D%0AIf you are trying to solve the %22carbon emissions from transportation%22 problem then the place to start looking is at the use cases which are more common and easier to deal with%2C %28i.e. the low-hanging fruit%29.  One of the big use cases that fits into that is the daily commute in urban%2Fsuburban%2Fexurban areas with running errands in those same areas another one.%0D%0A%0D%0A%0D%0A%5B1%5D Most people do do a crude version of this in that they don%27t buy something that is enough to move a house%27s worth of stuff and instead rent a truck%2C %28possibly with driver%29.
8|1|0|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|ratinox||16:11:59|04/05/2016|Also%2C chemical batteries are terribly inefficient. At best%2C roughly 75-80%25 of the energy used for charging is lost as waste heat. Closer to 90%25 waste is typical.%0D%0A%0D%0ASupercpacitors %28supercaps%29 are significantly more efficient than chemical batteries but they have their own spate of problems like leaking and sharp drop-off as they discharge.
9|2|8|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||16:14:29|04/05/2016|%3ESupercpacitors %28supercaps%29 are significantly more efficient than %0D%0A%3Echemical batteries but they have their own spate of problems like %0D%0A%3Eleaking and sharp drop-off as they discharge. %0D%0A%0D%0ALast I knew%2C they also had a nasty habit of exploding sometimes.  But then%2C so do lithium ion batteries.%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
10|3|9|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Nova Floresca||17:51:14|04/05/2016|%3E%3ESupercpacitors %28supercaps%29 are significantly more efficient than %0D%0A%3E%3Echemical batteries but they have their own spate of problems like %0D%0A%3E%3Eleaking and sharp drop-off as they discharge. %0D%0A%3E%0D%0A%3ELast I knew%2C they also had a nasty habit of exploding sometimes.  But %0D%0A%3Ethen%2C so do lithium ion batteries. %0D%0A%0D%0AIt could always be worse- one idea I keep seeing pop up when it comes to storing energy in an electric car is the flywheel system%2C because when I think of things I want around me in a crash%2C a tremendously heavy object containing ludicrous amounts of angular momentum is %5Bi%5Dright%5B%2Fi%5D at the top of the list.%0D%0A%0D%0A%22This is probably a stupid question%2C but . . .%22
11|4|10|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Gryphon||17:53:14|04/05/2016|[updated:LAST EDITED ON Apr-05-16 AT 05:53 PM (EDT)]%3EIt could always be worse- one idea I keep seeing pop up when it comes %0D%0A%3Eto storing energy in an electric car is the flywheel system%2C because %0D%0A%3Ewhen I think of things I want around me in a crash%2C a tremendously %0D%0A%3Eheavy object containing ludicrous amounts of angular momentum is %0D%0A%3E%5Bi%5Dright%5B%2Fi%5D at the top of the list.%0D%0A%0D%0ALarge gyroscopic forces are great for handling%2C too%21  Ask any Sopwith Camel pilot.%0D%0A%0D%0A--G.%0D%0A-%3E%3C-%0D%0ABenjamin D. Hutchins%2C Co-Founder%2C Editor-in-Chief%2C %26 Forum Mod%0D%0AEyrie Productions%2C Unlimited  http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eyrie-productions.com%2F%0D%0Azgryphon at that email service Google has%0D%0A%5Bi%5DCeterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.%5B%2Fi%5D
14|4|10|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||22:10:39|04/05/2016|%0D%0A%3EIt could always be worse- one idea I keep seeing pop up when it comes %0D%0A%3Eto storing energy %0D%0A%0D%0AReally%2C the problem%2C such as it is%2C is that oil and the other combustible hydrocarbons are goddamn miracle materials.%0D%0A%0D%0AWe don%27t really conceptualize them that way%2C but they are. A gallon of oil can be stored at room temperature nearly indefinitely%2C and by merely burning it in a way that is%2C frankly%2C not all that efficient %28although the humble internal combustion engine is%2C after a century of optimizing%2C also something of a little miracle%29%2C it releases enough energy to propel a ton of metal thirty to forty miles.%0D%0A%0D%0AAnd that%27s crazyface. It%27s a literal wonder of the natural world created by nothing more than millions of years of heat and pressure. When we drive a car or fly a plane%2C we%27re propelling it using the force of the geologic history of the planet contained in a little tank.%0D%0A%0D%0AIt%27s amazing%2C but it isn%27t easily replicable%2C or at least not cheaply. We keep trying%2C but it turns out the universe isn%27t any eager to bow to our engineering whims now than it ever has been.%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
16|5|14|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|CdrMike||07:20:54|04/06/2016|And that really is the problem for the large-scale adoption of any alternative fuel%2Fpower source%2C the ubiquity and utility of petroleum-based fuels.  The infrastructure that is built up around the extraction%2C transportation%2C distillation%2C and distribution of petroleum and the substances made from it is the work of decades of investment and innovation.  Replacing it all is not going to be an overnight process%2C is not going to be cheap%2C and is going to happen in ways that will require us to change how we view and use our cars.  It actually says a lot that there%27s more research money and time put into renewable methods of creating hydrocarbon fuels than there is into replacing them altogether.%0D%0A%0D%0AThough%2C I suppose if we wanted to totally wean ourselves off gasoline%2C we could pull out and dust off those plans for nuclear-powered cars.  I%27m thinking of naming mine %22Tsar Bomba.%22%0D%0A%0D%0A
17|6|16|||1||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|Mercutio||10:00:02|04/06/2016|%3EAnd that really is the problem for the large-scale adoption of any %0D%0A%3Ealternative fuel%2Fpower source%2C the ubiquity and utility of %0D%0A%3Epetroleum-based fuels.  %0D%0A%0D%0AI think this is why there%27s been such a big focus on plug-in electrics%2C because power outlets are everywhere%2C they%27re easily built out even in places they aren%27t%2C and the grid is... the grid. It%27s already there. This is%2C shall we say%2C a rather different proposition than needing to turn every gas station in the country into a hydrogen refueling station.%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EThe infrastructure that is built up around the %0D%0A%3Eextraction%2C transportation%2C distillation%2C and distribution of %0D%0A%3Epetroleum and the substances made from it is the work of decades of %0D%0A%3Einvestment and innovation. %0D%0A%0D%0AAnd also%2C this is key%2C of political decisions. That investment often took the form of Uncle Sam cutting some big%27old checks and writing highly preferential regulations. You can%27t build an oil pipeline%2C or a power plant%2C or anything else of that nature without political actors on your side.%0D%0A%0D%0AThat%27s the real fly in the ointment that a lot of the people approaching this from a technical standpoint either don%27t want to or aren%27t equipped to deal with. The engineering challenges are enormous but straightforward%2C because it turns out that%2C for monkeys with delusions of grandeur%2C we actually really are clever as fuck.%0D%0A%0D%0AOnly it turns out that there are a lot of people in the world%2C and not all of them agree all the time%2C and in order to stop us from murdering each other we%27ve established a system where you can%27t just %5Bi%5Dignore%5B%2Fi%5D the people who tell you %22No%2C that%27s dumb. We won%27t be doing that.%22%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EIt actually says a lot that there%27s more research money and time put into %0D%0A%3Erenewable methods of creating hydrocarbon fuels than there is into replacing %0D%0A%3Ethem altogether.%0D%0A%0D%0AAnd whether you think that%27s a good idea or not depends on if you approach this issue from the standpoint of %22oil isn%27t an infinite resource%2C you guys%22 or from the standpoint of %22even if it were%2C we should really stop burning it unless you want to find out what Miami looks like under five feet of water.%22 Those are two extremely different first principles.%0D%0A%0D%0A%3EThough%2C I suppose if we wanted to totally wean ourselves off gasoline%2C %0D%0A%3Ewe could pull out and dust off those plans for nuclear-powered cars.  %0D%0A%3EI%27m thinking of naming mine %22Tsar Bomba.%22 %0D%0A%0D%0AAre you sure you don%27t mean... %5Bi%5DCar%5B%2Fi%5D Bomba%3F%0D%0A%0D%0A%28I regret nothing.%29%0D%0A%0D%0A-Merc%0D%0AKeep Rat
15|4|10|||||RE%3A Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars%3F|ratinox||23:46:06|04/05/2016|%3EIt could always be worse- one idea I keep seeing pop up when it comes %0D%0A%3Eto storing energy in an electric car is the flywheel system%2C because %0D%0A%0D%0AThe idea is sound and in fact in use in a growing number of subway systems around the world. I think the MBTA have been experimenting with them on the Red Line recently.%0D%0A%0D%0ABut passenger cars%3F No.