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Subject: "SpaceX" Archived thread - Read only
 
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McFortner
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562 posts
Dec-21-15, 10:22 PM (EDT)
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"SpaceX"
 
   Tonight SpaceX pulled it off, successfully landing the first stage of their new Falcon 9 v1.1 at the landing pad at KSC. My son and I watched the webcast and went horse from cheering when they did it.

What a great time to be alive.

Michael C. Fortner
"Maxim 37: There is no such thing as "overkill".
There is only "open fire" and "I need to reload".


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  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
  RE: SpaceX Gryphonadmin Dec-21-15 1
     RE: SpaceX Nova Floresca Dec-21-15 2
     RE: SpaceX ratinoxteam Dec-21-15 3
         RE: SpaceX Gryphonadmin Dec-21-15 4
             RE: SpaceX McFortner Dec-21-15 5
                 RE: SpaceX VoidRandom Dec-22-15 7
             RE: SpaceX VoidRandom Dec-22-15 6
                 RE: SpaceX Star Ranger4 Dec-22-15 8
                     RE: SpaceX VoidRandom Dec-22-15 9
                         RE: SpaceX pjmoyermoderator Dec-22-15 10
                             RE: SpaceX ebony14 Dec-22-15 11
                                 RE: SpaceX pjmoyermoderator Dec-22-15 12
                         RE: SpaceX Star Ranger4 Dec-22-15 13
             RE: SpaceX ratinoxteam Dec-22-15 14
                 RE: SpaceX rwpikul Dec-22-15 15
                     RE: SpaceX mouse_rr Dec-22-15 18
             RE: SpaceX mouse_rr Dec-22-15 16
  RE: SpaceX SpottedKitty Dec-22-15 17
  RE: SpaceX Bad Moon Dec-25-15 19
  RE: SpaceX Star Ranger4 Jan-07-16 20
     RE: SpaceX rwpikul Jan-08-16 21
         RE: SpaceX jonathanlennox Jan-08-16 22
             RE: SpaceX Gryphonadmin Jan-08-16 23
                 RE: SpaceX The Traitor Jan-08-16 24
             RE: SpaceX TheOtherSean Jan-09-16 25

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Gryphonadmin
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22420 posts
Dec-21-15, 10:43 PM (EDT)
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1. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #0
 
   LAST EDITED ON Dec-21-15 AT 10:46 PM (EST)
 
>Tonight SpaceX pulled it off, successfully landing the first stage of
>their new Falcon 9 v1.1 at the landing pad at KSC.

So... serious question: Why would you want to do that in the first place? Is the first stage not being disposable really such a huge advantage, in some way I'm not perceiving, as to be worth the incredible hassle and expense of doing it this way?

Don't get me wrong, I assume there must be some actual point besides Elon & co. showing off, because a lot of people much cleverer than I am seem to be very excited about it; I don't get it, though. It's a neat trick, but it makes about as much sense to me as asking tank gunners to recover their discarding sabots.

--G.
-><-
Benjamin D. Hutchins, Co-Founder, Editor-in-Chief, & Forum Mod
Eyrie Productions, Unlimited http://www.eyrie-productions.com/
zgryphon at that email service Google has
Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.


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Nova Floresca
Member since Sep-13-13
571 posts
Dec-21-15, 11:01 PM (EDT)
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2. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #1
 
   Granted, this falls under "believing their press", but SpaceX claims that by recovering and reusing the 1st stage, they could cut the price of a Falcon 9 launch from ~60 million USD to ~7 million for the same payload. That isn't exactly "taking a joyride" cheap, but still, it could definitely put a lot more projects in space.

"This is probably a stupid question, but . . ."


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ratinoxteam
Member since Jun-6-05
229 posts
Dec-21-15, 11:05 PM (EDT)
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3. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #1
 
   Sabots are cheap. Rockets aren't. Falcon 9 v1.0 cost around $55M to manufacture in 2012. A reusable Falcon 9 v1.1 costs about $62M today. Refurbishing a booster for reuse costs substantially less than manufacturing a new one so the premium for reusability pays for itself after just a few flights.

--
Rat
That and five bucks will get you a small coffee at Starbucks


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Gryphonadmin
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Dec-21-15, 11:24 PM (EDT)
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4. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #3
 
   >Refurbishing a booster for reuse costs substantially less than
>manufacturing a new one so the premium for reusability pays for itself
>after just a few flights.

The thing is, you and I are both old enough to remember when NASA said that about the STS, and well...

--G.
-><-
Benjamin D. Hutchins, Co-Founder, Editor-in-Chief, & Forum Mod
Eyrie Productions, Unlimited http://www.eyrie-productions.com/
zgryphon at that email service Google has
Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.


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McFortner
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Dec-21-15, 11:45 PM (EDT)
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5. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #4
 
   LAST EDITED ON Dec-21-15 AT 11:47 PM (EST)
 
The big problem with the STS was they compromised so much and after Challenger a lot of the satellite launches it was supposed to perform were cancelled for safety reasons. It was made as a transportation system that did nothing but take astronauts into low earth orbit, which the public and politicians didn't see any benefits for in the first place. It was like buying a Hummer when all your driving is to go to the corner store once a month for milk. And Congress' machinations to brink pork projects to their districts to the detriment of saving costs on the system drove costs up even further. Great idea, poor execution.

SpaceX is a business and they are very motivated to keep costs down. They will always try to find a cheaper, better way to accomplish their goal because it ultimately increases their bottom line. Government has no incentive to do the same, as the STS program showed.


Michael C. Fortner
"Maxim 37: There is no such thing as "overkill".
There is only "open fire" and "I need to reload".


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VoidRandom
Member since Dec-9-02
185 posts
Dec-22-15, 00:27 AM (EDT)
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7. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #5
 
   > It was made as a transportation
>system that did nothing but take astronauts into low earth orbit,
>which the public and politicians didn't see any benefits for in the
>first place.

It's arguably worse than that. NASA made it's essential manned spaceflight mission the task of taking 40 y.o. PhDs into orbit to do "science" often as glorified lab techs. While this is great for the PhDs, it's not very compelling for everyone else. And when millionaires tried to get in on it, NASA was fairly clear that they were not allowed, so they had to go to the Russians. Now, if NASA had clearly been working towards wider (if initially expensive) access the resulting history of the shuttle might have been different (even with the other issues).

-VR
Of course, when John Glenn came calling, they yielded. They knew who issued their paycheques.
"They copied all they could follow, but they couldn't copy my mind,
And I left 'em sweating and stealing a year and a half behind."


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VoidRandom
Member since Dec-9-02
185 posts
Dec-22-15, 00:13 AM (EDT)
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6. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #4
 
   >The thing is, you and I are both old enough to remember when NASA said
>that about the STS, and well...

The shuttle was 1) a highly compromised design, 2) too leading edge and complex for the time and 3) a jobs program with wings. Elon and SpaceX appear to be trying very hard to avoid making all of these expensive mistakes. It also helps that they have no backstop from the public purse if things go wrong, along with some competition that would love to take their place if they should fail hugely.

-VR
And that's not mentioning all the insane problems NASA and it's manned spaceflight sections have had with risk management.
"They copied all they could follow, but they couldn't copy my mind,
And I left 'em sweating and stealing a year and a half behind."


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Star Ranger4
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Dec-22-15, 00:54 AM (EDT)
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8. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #6
 
   >And that's not mentioning all the insane problems NASA
>and it's manned spaceflight sections have had with risk
>management.

To instead be replaced by a company who, in the local industry circles is seen as hiring young engineers straight out of school, using them hard, basically using them up, then discarding them.

Of COURSE you wernt
expecting it!
No One expects the
FANNISH INQUISITION!

RCW# 86


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VoidRandom
Member since Dec-9-02
185 posts
Dec-22-15, 01:07 AM (EDT)
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9. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #8
 
   >To instead be replaced by a company who, in the local industry circles
>is seen as hiring young engineers straight out of school, using them
>hard, basically using them up, then discarding them.

Do you work there? I'm genuinely curious as to how much of that is true and how much is the result of political maneuvering by the old-line aerospace corporations who can see themselves getting reduced rations in the future. They cost a lot of money to run and most weren't as smart as Boeing, who made sure they had a non-governmental revenue stream.

-VR
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going...
"They copied all they could follow, but they couldn't copy my mind,
And I left 'em sweating and stealing a year and a half behind."


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pjmoyermoderator
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Dec-22-15, 01:30 AM (EDT)
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10. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #9
 
   >>To instead be replaced by a company who, in the local industry circles
>>is seen as hiring young engineers straight out of school, using them
>>hard, basically using them up, then discarding them.
>
>Do you work there? I'm genuinely curious as to how much of that is
>true and how much is the result of political maneuvering by the
>old-line aerospace corporations who can see themselves getting reduced
>rations in the future. They cost a lot of money to run and most
>weren't as smart as Boeing, who made sure they had a non-governmental
>revenue stream.

FWIW, a guy at our LEGO club worked at NASA down at Kennedy during the Apollo program. (well, not sure if -at- Kennedy, but definitely for Apollo). I'll have to dig out the photos I took of his scrapbook at the time.

--- Philip






Philip J. Moyer
Contributing Writer, Editor and Artist (and Moderator) -- Eyrie Productions, Unlimited
CEO of MTS, High Poobah Of Artwork, and High Priest Of the Church Of Aerianne -- Magnetic Terrapin Studios
"Insert Pithy Comment Here"
Fandoms -- Fanart -- Fan Meta Discussions


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ebony14
Member since Jul-11-11
437 posts
Dec-22-15, 08:27 AM (EDT)
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11. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #10
 
   Completely off-topic: I find the idea of a LEGO Club to be pretty cool.

Ebony the Black Dragon

"Life is like an anole. Sometimes it's green. Sometimes it's brown. But it's always a small Caribbean lizard."


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pjmoyermoderator
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1856 posts
Dec-22-15, 10:34 AM (EDT)
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12. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #11
 
   >Completely off-topic: I find the idea of a LEGO Club to be pretty
>cool.

https://lan.lego.com/lugs

Official list of LEGO recognized Lego User Groups (LUGs)

--- Philip
(Find one near you today!)






Philip J. Moyer
Contributing Writer, Editor and Artist (and Moderator) -- Eyrie Productions, Unlimited
CEO of MTS, High Poobah Of Artwork, and High Priest Of the Church Of Aerianne -- Magnetic Terrapin Studios
"Insert Pithy Comment Here"
Fandoms -- Fanart -- Fan Meta Discussions


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Star Ranger4
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2483 posts
Dec-22-15, 10:43 AM (EDT)
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13. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #9
 
   >Do you work there?

Nope. My Maternal Unit works in quality assurance at Aerospace. And she's worried about still having a job once the WGS program wraps.

Of COURSE you wernt
expecting it!
No One expects the
FANNISH INQUISITION!

RCW# 86


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ratinoxteam
Member since Jun-6-05
229 posts
Dec-22-15, 11:06 AM (EDT)
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14. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #4
 
   >The thing is, you and I are both old enough to remember when NASA said
>that about the STS, and well...

The STS we got was not the vehicle that NASA wanted to make. Congress slashed NASA's space launch budget by half so instead of a single stage to orbit reusable spaceplane we got a brick of a glider strapped to a massive FAE bomb. And then Congress did the same thing to the VentureStar project so instead of a single stage to orbit reusable spaceplane we got... an extension to the cut-funded STS programme.

--
Rat
That and five bucks will get you a small coffee at Starbucks


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rwpikul
Member since Jun-22-03
224 posts
Dec-22-15, 12:15 PM (EDT)
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15. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #14
 
   >>The thing is, you and I are both old enough to remember when NASA said
>>that about the STS, and well...
>
>The STS we got was not the vehicle that NASA wanted to make. Congress
>slashed NASA's space launch budget by half so instead of a single
>stage to orbit reusable spaceplane we got a brick of a glider strapped
>to a massive FAE bomb. And then Congress did the same thing to the
>VentureStar project so instead of a single stage to orbit reusable
>spaceplane we got... an extension to the cut-funded STS programme.

Worse than that, the shuttle ended up having all three parts of the intended program crammed into it along with some military intelligence requirements, (half of which were never used).

The plan was three things:

At least one space station.
A heavy-lift booster to build space stations and other projects.
A small shuttle for people and supplies.

As cutbacks came, the shuttle had to be made bigger to do a cut-rate version of the heavy-lift work as well and also the ability to do extended missions because there was no space station to go to. Then the cutbacks reached the point that NASA couldn't even do that and they had to get the Air Force on board.

The Air Force insisted on two things:

The ability to launch their Keyhole satellites, (making the shuttle even bigger).

The ability to do a fractional polar orbit and return to the launch site. The plan was to launch, do a satellite launch or retrieval, (the latter not necessarily of an American satellite), then land without ever going where the Soviets could easily watch. No such flights were ever flown, making the crippling design compromises to get the cross-range capability needed were all done for nothing.

--
Chakat Firepaw - Inventor & Scientist (Mad)


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mouse_rr
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Dec-22-15, 06:33 PM (EDT)
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18. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #15
 
   >As cutbacks came, the shuttle had to be made bigger to do a cut-rate
>version of the heavy-lift work as well and also the ability to do
>extended missions because there was no space station to go to. Then
>the cutbacks reached the point that NASA couldn't even do that and
>they had to get the Air Force on board.
>
>The Air Force insisted on two things:
>
>The ability to launch their Keyhole satellites, (making the shuttle
>even bigger).

actually thats a bit backwards, the original plans called for the sts to be a heavy-lift vehicle on its own and all changes _reduced_ the overall size because the larger system was, at the time infinitely more expensive or so was the word coming from the people actually building it, my family included.



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mouse_rr
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Dec-22-15, 06:20 PM (EDT)
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16. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #4
 
   LAST EDITED ON Dec-22-15 AT 06:23 PM (EST)
 
>The thing is, you and I are both old enough to remember when NASA said that about the STS, and well...

--G.

funny this should be brought up, this is a topic iv spent 35yrs on. i had family working on the shuttle program during its middle and final development stage, i got to study original blueprints for the sts and got to keep the revised plans and detailed 'manual' they gave to politicians to explain the system concept, i also had 1 of the official NASA models of it with the removable panels that showed the internals of key systems and got to play around with a torch and some of the 1st run tiles(great fun for a scientifically bent youth ... also styrofoam is stronger/more durable than those tiles were) and i got to hear the consistent bitching about which new direction the design was headed for. the original plans split into the 'orbiter' and the 'fly-back booster' but then the airforce took controlling interest, ostensibly due to budget reasons(completely untrue), and the program became the single worst system NASA produced with its own engineers wondering _before first flight_ how long before it killed its crew. if the original plans had been followed it would have had a smaller payload capacity for its size, traded for an active tps but its turn around time would have been days not months. of course the original plans called for it to be about 20% larger than the final version with most of the increase going towards cargo space so its payload would have closely matched with what its final incarnation was capable of.

having had the chance to go over in fine detail the exact plans that would become the shuttle i wondered what the frell they were thinking when they dropped the white coating layer from the external tank because that was actually part of the integrated tank system. it was that heavy layering of paint that kept the insulation from shedding and with it gone the odds of a catastrophic failure became 100% up from the more usual 65-75% that was expected for every launch.

the importance of the falcon landing isnt as much 'great technical strides', (which it does kinda of represent ... the delta clipper demonstrated these landing systems and techniques years prior but a single failure doomed the program) as the completion of a process that should have been done decades ago. that said it is still a garbage system for transporting people. these things blow up far too regularly for human use. skylon or virgin galactic have the right idea for human orbital delivery, skylon being the only horizontal launch/landing ssto vehicle and ss2 its closest competitor. of the 2 only skylon offers a truly 'safe' launch and return solution as it utilizes a active tps, a jet/rocket hybrid(the engineering behind which still amazes me) a glass cockpit(mixed feelings on this honestly) and a completely separate 'payload/passenger' compartment, which i count as a good thing, a would-be 'terrorist' cant very easily hijack a hypersonic vehicle if he/she/it can't get to the pilots.

so yeah, there is a lot of good from the falcon landing demonstration, and the blue origin 'new shepard' vehicle but it is perhaps a few decades late and not really a significant improvement over the boosters used up till now. it still means sitting atop a bomb being deliberately set off to throw things off planet and that, in my honest opinion, is never a good idea.


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SpottedKitty
Member since Jun-15-04
605 posts
Dec-22-15, 06:29 PM (EDT)
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17. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #0
 
   "As God and Robert Heinlein meant them to". Beautiful.

And yes, that's a quote, from the final verse of Steve Savitzky's filksong The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of.

I remember watching the DC-X fly, more than twenty years ago. I know Blue Origin's New Shepard vehicle did a similar launch-and-land just last month, but that's suborbital. This was a full commercial launch to orbit, placing a whole constellation of eleven small commsats.

--
Unable to save the day: File is read-only.


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Bad Moon
Member since Dec-17-02
310 posts
Dec-25-15, 00:06 AM (EDT)
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19. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #0
 
   *in rival sports fan tone* Go Blue Origin!

------
Oh God, it was me. I was the grognard all along.


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Star Ranger4
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Jan-07-16, 10:24 AM (EDT)
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20. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #0
 
   Keeps getting closer (though I will admit that any misgivings I have about the company and its management are most likely filtered by family perceptions) as they have another launch scheduled for today.

This is *NOT*, from what I can see, the real holy grail launch; where they have turned around a bird that has gone up once and sent her up again. The company apparently plans to take that bird apart give her a real thorough once over to see just how its flight has affected the historic bird and what, if any, changes might want to be made to later production models.

This bird might just be more important in the long run, as if she can be shot, and recovered, might just be the first bird to be fully refurbished and return to orbit, which is a major milestone in and of itself, but to me the more important one is if it can be recovered at the end of its second flight as easily as its first.

Thats the holy grail at the moment.

after that, the one other component to getting us as a race off this rock is the one issue I've heard little to nothing about... a better engine/fuel combination. I dunno about today's generation, but the authors of mine (Heinlein, Asimov, Clarke) all posited reaction mass most likely heated by a nuclear reactor, something believed practical then but not feasible now; politically if not from a physics standpoint.

We're still at the bottom of the well, we need a 'stronger arm' to start chucking stuff out of it without exhausting ourselves.

Of COURSE you wernt
expecting it!
No One expects the
FANNISH INQUISITION!

RCW# 86


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rwpikul
Member since Jun-22-03
224 posts
Jan-08-16, 00:59 AM (EDT)
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21. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #20
 
   >after that, the one other component to getting us as a race off this
>rock is the one issue I've heard little to nothing about... a better
>engine/fuel combination. I dunno about today's generation, but the
>authors of mine (Heinlein, Asimov, Clarke) all posited reaction mass
>most likely heated by a nuclear reactor, something believed practical
>then but not feasible now; politically if not from a physics
>standpoint.

NTRs are great, just not for liftoff:

Solid-core NTRs don't have the thrust to weight.
Liquid-core NTRs are borderline and can't be started outside of freefall. They also have significantly radioactive exhaust.
Open cycle gas-core NTRs have the T-W, (although they still aren't great) but are a serious nope when it comes to running one in a biosphere. Liquids may leak radioactives, but NTR-gas spews them.
Closed cycle gas-core NTRs might not be possible and might not have the T-W if they are.

Even the ones that might work mean building large ships, NTRs are heavy.

Slogging your way out of a gravity well into freefall is the realm of high thrust so that you can get past the gravity losses. High T-W is where chemical rockets shine, replacing them really requires some form of external thrust.


There is one nuclear drive that does work for liftoff, but it's probably better that the program got cancelled: Curtis LeMay having a spaceship filled with nuclear bombs belongs very much in the realm of 'what if?'

--
Chakat Firepaw - Inventor & Scientist (Mad)


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jonathanlennox
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263 posts
Jan-08-16, 10:15 AM (EDT)
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22. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #21
 
   >There is one nuclear drive that does work for liftoff, but it's
>probably better that the program got cancelled: Curtis LeMay having a
>spaceship filled with nuclear bombs belongs very much in the realm of
>'what if?'

And this was why the name of the new NASA crew vehicle was so alarming for people familiar with the history.


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Gryphonadmin
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22420 posts
Jan-08-16, 10:50 AM (EDT)
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23. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #22
 
   >>There is one nuclear drive that does work for liftoff, but it's
>>probably better that the program got cancelled: Curtis LeMay having a
>>spaceship filled with nuclear bombs belongs very much in the realm of
>>'what if?'
>
>And this was why the name of the new NASA crew vehicle
>was so alarming for people familiar with the history.

It's pretty funny, in retrospect, how many proposals there were for non-military uses of nuclear explosives, the premise being, "Hey, regular explosives have loads of peaceful uses, how hard can it be?" Also ominous the way many of those proposals rapidly turned sinister (note the last paragraph before "see also").

I would assume that one of the points of divergence in the Fallout universe is that things like Project Chariot were actually done there.

--G.
-><-
Benjamin D. Hutchins, Co-Founder, Editor-in-Chief, & Forum Mod
Eyrie Productions, Unlimited http://www.eyrie-productions.com/
zgryphon at that email service Google has
Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.


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The Traitor
Member since Feb-24-09
1197 posts
Jan-08-16, 02:13 PM (EDT)
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24. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #23
 
   ...

That isn't sinister, that's obscene. And all the more so for how completely unsurprising it is.

---
"She's old, she's lame, she's barren too, // "She's not worth feed or hay, // "But I'll give her this," - he blew smoke at me - // "She was something in her day." -- Garnet Rogers, Small Victory

FiMFiction.net: we might accept blatant porn involving the cast of My Little Pony but as God is my witness we have standards.


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TheOtherSean
Member since Jul-7-08
246 posts
Jan-09-16, 04:00 PM (EDT)
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25. "RE: SpaceX"
In response to message #22
 
   >And
>this
>was why the name of the
>new NASA crew vehicle
>was so alarming for people familiar with the history.


It could have been worse, they could have named it Pluto.

--
The Other Sean - Don't accept substitutes!
Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?


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