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Subject: "Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars?"     Previous Topic | Next Topic
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MuninsFire
Member since Mar-27-07
457 posts
Apr-13-16, 01:15 AM (EDT)
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25. "RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars?"
In response to message #21
 
  
>... So in the future I'll be expected to have two cars, because one
>can't go anywhere except to the store and the other is Ethically
>Unacceptable for doing so? Uh. Who decides which trip is suitable
>for which vehicle?
>
>It's just... like virtually everything else that's considered "modern"
>these days, the whole concept is optimized for city living to the
>point where it's worse than useless to those of us who don't. One
>gets tired of that drumbeat after a while. A very short while.
>

So, I've been keeping an eye on this sort of thing for a while now, and there's some interesting confluences happening around the car industry.

Please bear in mind that my perspective on this is primarily concerned with information security, so if it sounds somewhat paranoid....well, there's reasons.

(tl;dr if you want to skip the rationale: various pressures will denormalize auto ownership amongst city folk; will be more expensive for country folk; freedom of movement is going to drastically shrink)

There's several different car manufacturers (and some tech manufacturers) who are making noises about autonomous vehicles, some of which are intended to be electrically powered. There have been demonstrations of several classes of such vehicles, including (recently) autonomously-controlled semitrucks.

There's also some tech firms that are more interested in selling car-rides-as-a-service rather than cars, per se. Uber and Lyft, for instance. They fit in the previous category as well - they're involved in developing autonomous vehicle capabilities, as they are interested in reducing the cost of driver payments.

There's also quite a few folks in the insurance industry who are beginning to see that autonomous vehicles are safer than the typical driver.

The tech firms and insurance firms are extremely interested in collecting data around the kinds of rides taken in various vehicles - Uber, for instance, is particularly notorious for the collection and use of such information.

There are already car rental firms that are including mandatory telemetry reporting in their rental cars. There are also several insurance firms that offer "reduced" rates if you install a telemetry recorder in your car that reports to them.

There are also governmental factors at work here - not just lobbying by the auto, tech, and insurance industries, but the increasing pressure on states to fund their transportation budgets. The increases in gasoline efficiency (as demanded by EPA guidelines) and the increase in electric car usage (which doesn't -use- gas) has resulted in a drastic loss in revenues from gasoline taxes; these gas taxes are generally earmarked for DOT budgets.

Further, there's been, for the past few years, an overall reduction in the number of teenagers getting drivers' licenses - the articles that talk about that cite a lack of interest, costs that are too high to run a car, etc.

Add to this the increase in "anti-terrorist" surveillance, which is in the news everywhere.

With all these factors in play, there are several potential outcomes, but from my particular perspective, the most likely one is this:

As autonomous vehicles become more normalized and capable, insurance companies will offer 'discounts' for vehicles with autonomous capabilities (because they're safer) but, needing to make up the costs to maintain revenues, will hike the rates for manual-control vehicles.

These costs will cause older, used vehicle insurance costs to skyrocket, further impeding the likelihood of drivers' license acquisition amongst teenagers.

Normalization of "ride summoning" apps (and the associated ease of being able to order a ride to your location, as well as the comparatively cheap costs of maintaining an autonomous vehicle fleet rather than paying drivers) results in a further loss of persons with driving capability, and increased use of by-ride purchases rather than automobile ownership in cities and in the attached sprawl.

These rides will end up having taxes added to them by length, to fund the departments of transportation.

The data concerning who takes what ride where will, of course, be thoroughly sold by the ride providers (as the autonomous vehicles will have to report telemetry anyway as a normal part of their usage), and will be provided to various law enforcement agencies on whatever pretexts they want.

At this point, I suspect we may well get various cities implementing Shadowrun-style traffic-control grids to manage autonomous vehicle flow, so at least this cyberpunk dystopia will have -some- cool bits.

Rural persons will presumably have to gain special exemption for vehicles that do not travel under fully autonomous guidance, much as exemptions exist today for, e.g., children in farming families with tractors and the like.

(Though there's already plenty of pushback there, given that semi-autonomous tractors are already being pushed as a way to increase farming efficiency.)

We end up with movement being controlled by a set of autonomous-vehicle-fleet companies who thoroughly monitor and control access to transportation, with only a comparatively few rich or eccentric people actually owning vehicles - people buy rides, not cars. There are several outcomes that result from -this- but those are out of scope of the 'car' theme of discussion.

So in the future, you will have -no- cars, and will order a small vehicle or a large vehicle depending on whether you have a lot of shopping to do, and will pay whatever rate the local infrastructure provider cares to charge.

In Xanadu did Kubla Khan
A stately pleasure-dome decree
Where Alph, the sacred river, ran
Through caverns measureless to man
Down to a sunless sea


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  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? [View All] Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 TOP
   RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? BZArchermoderator Apr-05-16 1
      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? rwpikul Apr-06-16 18
   RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-05-16 2
      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 3
          RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-05-16 4
              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 5
                  RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-05-16 6
                      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 7
                      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Peter Eng Apr-05-16 12
                          RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 13
                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? MoonEyes Apr-12-16 19
                                  RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? rwpikul Apr-12-16 20
                                      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-12-16 21
                                          RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Pasha Apr-12-16 22
                                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-12-16 23
                                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-12-16 24
                                         RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? MuninsFire Apr-13-16 25
                                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-13-16 26
                                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? MuninsFire Apr-13-16 27
                                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-13-16 28
                                              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? MuninsFire Apr-13-16 30
                                          RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? rwpikul Apr-13-16 29
   RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? ratinoxteam Apr-05-16 8
      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 9
          RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Nova Floresca Apr-05-16 10
              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Gryphonadmin Apr-05-16 11
              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-05-16 14
                  RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? CdrMike Apr-06-16 16
                      RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? Mercutio Apr-06-16 17
              RE: Do Androids Dream of Electric Cars? ratinoxteam Apr-05-16 15


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