Well, that's a real tough thing to even begin to guess at. Simulated intelligence is just a matter of building a system that can pass a Turing test, and depending on who you ask, we may already be at that point. As for true AI, are you talking about a self-aware machine, or an expert system that responds like a human being? If you're talking about a self-aware machine, then it depends on whether or not you subscribe to the "strong AI" idea, where all it takes is a critical mass of processing power and learning potential to achieve self-awareness (I believe "strong AI" is the term, not sure, since I'm running on low-sleep at the moment); personally, I don't, so building a truly self-aware machine might not happen in our lifetime without a better understanding of how our own self-awareness functions. An expert system that responds like a human personality... well, if Moore's "Law" holds true for the next couple of decades, we'll probably see that by 2025 or so.

As for nanotech... well, significant strides are happening constantly, and I think it's first ultra-tech development we'll probably see. (We're already in early TL8, in GURPS terms, and TL9 isn't all that far off, all things considered.) It'll probably be a good twenty or thirty years before we might see things like nanotech healing colonies or nanotech factories even being seriously considered for production, since there's a fair amount of hurdles that have to be overcome. They're hardly insurmountable -- mostly a matter of time and engineering, not so much raw invention -- but it's going to take a lot of time before we're going to see mass production of molecular machines.

Cyberware... that's a different matter. I can see common prosthetics that will function essentially like a cybernetic limb (i.e., riding neural impulses) being the norm rather than the exception, particularly in recent amputees, by sometime between 2005 and 2010. Decking will most likely start as a way of helping quadraplegics and the like use computers and other electronics; a control alternative that functions directly on neural input rather than mechanical operation of an input device. Those I can also see becoming common by the end of this decade, probably first in Europe and then later gaining acceptance Stateside. How long before these kind of implants become common is another matter; it depends on how invasive and how easily reversible the operation is, and how safe the hardware is in terms of longitudinal effects. Going the other way -- neural *input* through a cybernetic control -- will take significantly longer, and probably a number of human guinea pigs, because it's learning a whole new sense. It's like a thirty-five-year-old who's been blind from birth suddenly gaining sight; a LOT of learning that isn't easy for an adult mind to do.

Reflex boosters, strength enhancements... I don't know, and I don't care, since I wouldn't have a use for them. As I've said before, rigging and decking sound interesting and useful, and that and maybe nanotech healers are about the only types of cybertech I'd be interested in.

-- Sean --

"Imagination is more important than knowledge." -- Albert Einstein

"It's not easy being green." -- Kermit the Frog

This is not an easy question to awnser.
BUT here is my guess on the AI stuff....
Self aware AI's will be awailble IF and only IF you can mac irrational logic statments like.
"I may do it if I FEEl like it"
"Maybe if you give me an othe HDD, the I might consider doing this/that"
"How's you sister marth nowadays? Havent heard from her since last X-mas What should you have for dinner?" (computers doesn't eat)
and this might only come tru if we get the quantum computers to work. and if we do then its time to reevaluate the concept of random events..... or something like that (jorl knows more about this than I do)
and that all folks!

http://countingdown.com/features?feature_id=16381

I think it looks pretty amazing myself, but then I'm a huge Kubrick/Spieilberg fan, so I'm biased out of the gate.

The trailer is in Quicktime format, fyi.

---------------------------
"I think we used too much."
---------------------------
Chad Collier
Digital Bitch
J. Random VFX Company